oldrailbird

Zenyatta Saturday

2009-05-23T02:16:00.000-07:00

I have nothing to say about the Derby except the winner shocked me. The cowboys pulled a fast one. The cat was out of the bag in the Preakness, but the filly still beat him.She didn't look like she wanted another quarter mile, though. Could have 3 different winners in 3 races.

Nice filly though, huh? Like the males, she's probably more valuable in the shed than on the track.

Speaking of fillies, may we present the Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park. A mile and a sixteenth on whatever track this is – cushion track? It's remarkably better for bettors than the Santa Anita crap. Fillies and Mares, 3 and up.

An ungraded $150K purse seems like peanuts to Zenyatta, who is looking to tune up after a seven month layoff. Her average money per start is $238K and a win here is only worth $90K. She appears head and shoulders better than what usually competes in such races, but will she turn in a good effort off the long layoff?

While Zenyatta rested, Life Is Sweet assumed the mantle of most feared female by reeling off two Grade 2 wins and a Grade 1. Both are trained by John Shirreffs but are not a betting entry. Strange how often the longest shot of an uncoupled entry wins. I think that's why they used to be coupled.

The rest of the horses appear to be a fairly humble group of turf horses, several trying this artificial surface for the first time. I think turf horses react favorably to artificial surfaces. Look for some of these guys to step up their game.

They are up against the best female in the world, as measured by the Breeder's Cup. Is anything these horses can do going to be enough? It's doubtful, but they're offering long odds.

There's little room for error playing 2 to 5 five shots. I can make excuses for practically any of these horses winning, as shocking as that might seem at first. A loss here risks Zenyatta's undefeated stature, but if you run her long enough she'll get beat. Is it today? Today's the best excuse she'll get for losing.

It's tempting to bet everyone except the top two, that's six win tickets because I'm sure Hot N Dusty is scratched. One of them might turn the trick for a tidy profit. I don't think of trying stuff like this very often, because its usually a bad idea to back more than one horse to win. You need long odds and live horses along with the hope that something goes wrong for the favorites.

Zenyatta is using this race as a workout. Shirreffs has the next best thing if the big horse somehow falters. On paper, they are 1-2 by a city block. They don't run on paper, so there's a chance to upset.

Derby Picks

2009-05-01T17:59:00.000-07:00

Here are my 2009 Kentucky Derby picks:


Ra 11  Horse                  ML    FAIR
 13    I WANT REVENGE        3.0    3.90
 16    PIONEEROF THE NILE    4.0    4.30
  7    PAPA CLEM            20.0    9.20
  2    MUSKET MAN           20.0   10.50
  5    HOLD ME BACK         15.0   12.40
 11    CHOCOLATE CANDY      20.0   14.30
  3    MR. HOT STUFF        30.0   14.50
  1    WEST SIDE BERNIE     30.0   16.70
 10    REGAL RANSOM         30.0   20.30
 19    DESERT PARTY         15.0   20.30
  6    FRIESAN FIRE          5.0   20.50
 12    GENERAL QUARTERS     20.0   22.70
 15    DUNKIRK               4.0   24.30
 20    FLYING PRIVATE       50.0   32.80
 14    ATOMIC RAIN          50.0   38.40
 17    SUMMER BIRD          50.0   38.40
  9    JOIN IN THE DANCE    50.0   46.50
  8    MINE THAT BIRD       50.0   47.00
  4    ADVICE               30.0   49.00
 18    NOWHERE TO HIDE      50.0   58.50

Here's a video of the top three in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Pioneer of the Nile looked like a monster that day and he hasn't done anything wrong since.

I'm not saying this is going to be a two horse race, but the top two look pretty strong against these. If money gets spread around, a simple exacta box might pay well.

If you're looking for longshots, don't expect Papa Clem to reach his morning line. He might be less than 10-1. Musket Man and Hold Me Back could get a piece at a price.

Good Luck and Safe Racing!

Derby Odds

2009-04-29T11:27:00.000-07:00

Mike Battaglia has published his morning line on the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Battaglia is widely acknowledged as the best in the business.

Post Position	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	West Side Bernie	Stewart Elliott	Kelly Breen	30-1
2	Musket Man	Eibar Coa	Derek Ryan	20-1
3	Mr. Hot Stuff	John Velazquez	Eoin Harty	30-1
4	Advice	Rene Douglas	Todd Pletcher	30-1
5	Hold Me Back	Kent Desormeaux	Bill Mott	15-1
6	Friesan Fire	Gabriel Saez	J. Larry Jones	5-1
7	Papa Clem	Rafael Bejarano	Gary Stute	20-1
8	Mine That Bird	Calvin Borel	Bennie Woolley Jr.	50-1
9	Join in the Dance	Chris DeCarlo	Todd Pletcher	50-1
10	Regal Ransom	Alan Garcia	Saeed bin Suroor	30-1
11	Chocolate Candy	Mike Smith	Jerry Hollendorfer	20-1
12	General Quarters	Julien Leparoux	Tom McCarthy	20-1
13	I Want Revenge	Joe Talamo	Jeff Mullins	3-1
14	Atomic Rain	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	50-1
15	Dunkirk	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	4-1
16	Pioneerof the Nile	Garrett Gomez	Bob Baffert	4-1
17	Summer Bird	Chris Rosier	Tim Ice	50-1
18	Nowhere to Hide	Shaun Bridgmohan	Nick Zito	50-1
19	Desert Party	Ramon Dominguez	Saeed bin Suroor	15-1
20	Flying Private	Robby Albarado	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1

I'll be posting my handicap on HorseCalc and here Friday night.

Glancing at the past performances, you have to respect Pioneer of the Nile. Since Baffert took over as trainer he is 4 for 4. I Want Revenge is 0 for 2 against him. IWR and Papa Clem were both run out of Southern California by Pioneer...Can they beat him now?

Good Luck.

Shoot the 7 and I Got It!

2009-04-16T18:19:00.000-07:00

Is there anything you hate worse than watching your trifecta run 2,3,4 behind some longshot winner that you didn't figure? That's when even the most optimistic of us start suspecting foul play.

I just watched two races in a row where the seven horse wiped out scrumptious superfectas by romping to an easy win. The saddle cloth number doesn't matter, just the fact that there was no way in my world view that horse would hit the board, much less annihilate the field.

For Southern California, I started a text file I call cheaters.txt just for this type of horse. I'm not going to post it because it's an incomplete work in progress. Maybe they're not "cheaters," either but something was weird according to my race perceptions.

So far, two theories stand out:

1) If the trainer and the owner are "connected" (same guy, same family, his farm) and the odds are good, look out.

2) If the jockey is J Rosario and the odds are good, look out.

This isn't going to work at small tracks where the trainers and owners are nearly all inter-related. Hell, it may not make money at a big track where trainers have many clients -- it just seems like it could.

:PS
The Pamplemousse is out of the Kentucky Derby and will likely miss six months of racing.

The Pamplemousse

2009-03-02T00:49:00.000-08:00

First, read this article and watch the video of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

The first time I saw this horse entered I was attracted to his bizarre name -- The Pamplemousse! "What the hell is a Pamplemousse?" I thought. His name was wacky enough to stand out as a maiden and be remembered as he started winning.

It turns out Pamplemousse is French for grapefruit, a fact that exposes my poor breeding. Had I had a Hoity-Toity upbringing I would have known this and never enjoyed watching the horse develop. Ignorance really can be bliss!

It turns out the horse isn't so much named for a fruit as named for a restaurant near Del Mar racetrack that is popular with jockeys and trainers. Some of the same people who own the horse own the restaurant and so the name of the horse makes sense after all.

There is more strangeness to this story, however. It turns out the son of the horse's jockey, Alex Solis, owns a piece so it will be a cold day in hell before The Pamplemousse suffers a jockey change. Add to the mix the colorful Julio Canani as trainer and we have a tale worthy of a bonefide Derby Contender. The LATimes reveals details in this great story.

There is still more than two (2) months until the Kentucky Derby and a lot can change for fragile thoroughbreds in such a long span of time. Between now and then lies the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, and even a win there may only label The Pamplemousse as a synthetic specialist.

Well, I have a theory about synthetics (but it may be wrong.) I think they're slippery, nasty surfaces in the heat and clumpy, holey obstacle courses in the cold. Maybe horses that run well on synthetics are horses that watch where to put their feet. Dirt and turf horses just run along stepping where they please without paying attention to their footing. A switch from dirt to synthetic might be the kiss of death, but a switch from synthetic to dirt might be fine.

Anyway, The Pamplemousse is a big, strong, fast horse. I don't know who on the West Coast has the credentials to challenge him in the Santa Anita Derby. If he wires the field there, look for him to try the same on the first Saturday in May.

Random Santa Anita

2009-02-22T23:54:00.000-08:00

I haven't written for a while because everything I previously said is still true. Santa Anita still sucks. The results seem only slightly beyond random. There is a Pick Six carryover nearly every day, including today. Thanks to a $115 horse, there is a $169,000 carry into Wednesday.

Still, I continue to make and publish selections everyday at www.horsecalc.com.

Most experts will tell you to avoid minor tracks because the animals are sore and cannot be counted upon to give their best effort. They insist you limit your play to major tracks with valuable horses as their "class" makes them more consistent. Steven Crist, Publisher of the Daily Racing Form, adheres strictly to the class track theory and only plays Southern California and New York.

Well, I can't speak for New York, but the artificial surface at Santa Anita can make a Grade I Stakes the functional equivalent of a $4,500 claimer at Retama. The footing negates track class and we are left trying to profit from as few "right run" races at Santa Anita as anywhere else.

The only advantage Anita now has over the smaller tracks is larger pools. Sometimes, larger pools can be a disadvantage -- I once swiped $2,550 on a $1 exacta from a small US pool bet on Australia because I had the only winning ticket (and the horses were only 12-1 & 25-1.)

Some of you may be thinking I'm full of sour grapes because my top selections haven't been winning. I don't keep close records, but I can say that my top picks are winning at a clip consistent with my past performance. I would even bet that Santa Anita will record winning favorite percentages close to the norm of 30%. Most of that number comes from short fields and of course no record is kept of how often rude longshots finish in the money to screw up your exotic bets. The favorite can win one in three while unhandicapable horses win the other two.

All in all, I'll be glad when Santa Anita closes.

Why Bother with Horse Racing?

2009-01-12T21:02:00.000-08:00

Joe Hirsch, racing's inimitable chronicler, died three days ago at the ripe old age of eighty. Mr. Hirsch was an unflappable fan of thoroughbred racing who reported only the bright side and never focused on the unseemly.

Yes, Joe was a cheerleader for the sport. He was a bright ray of hope even as the industry declined before his retirement in 2003. He struggled with the infirmities of Parkinson's Disease, but never let it dim his positive image of the sport he loved.

Joe was an admirable man, but was he racing's Pollyanna? He always saw the decent side of horse racing, the noble spirit of the animals and the good-natured competition between racing people. His writings reflected great truths of racing while ignoring its great lies.

Sometimes, when I get depressed (which, I admit, is quite often) I wonder why I would care which rich man's horse is faster than other rich men's horses. Ultimately, in the big picture that is human civilization, does it really matter how fast an animal ran or who it beat? For that matter, does the Super Bowl or the World Series matter a smidgen in the greater scheme of things? No. No, of course none of these things truly matter.

Do the starving millions matter? Does it matter who is President or who wins an Academy Award? Does it matter if you pray or who you pray to? Is there anything at all that matters except what you will eat next and where you might lay your head tonight?

In the larger scope of things, it wouldn't really matter to the Universe if the earth were rendered lifeless by a massive plasma discharge from the sun.

In the end, nothing matters. Most scientists believe the universe is expanding to infinity and no life will be possible once we're positioned into the cold expanse of space.

So, what do we do? We diddle around with sports and politics and literature and history and science and we pretend that what we concern ourselves with is somehow meaningful, despite knowing it is all just illusion.

Well, the world is not ending tomorrow despite what you read about Wall Street. So, we have this time to fill with idle pursuits. Mostly, we pursue what fills our bellies and fulfills our desires.

We look around and wonder how to invigorate our curiosity and fill our wallets. We realize that horse racing can possibly do both. We can gamble on the outcome of competition between the horses of rich men and possibly enrich ourselves. The sport entices our avarice!

I mourn the passing of Joe as I mourn the passing of all things. Times seem more complicated now, and I wonder if a cheerleader such as Joe Hirsch would find success today. I wonder if a Pollyanna view of the "Sport of Kings" is even beneficial given the difficulties we now face.

I love racing. I love the mental challenge of picking not only winners, but the formulation of structured bets on exotic wagers. I doubt there is a drug that can compare to the mental rush of cashing a high payoff. If I lose today, I play tomorrow, convinced my insight into the sport will prove profitable.

As much as I love it, I know the pitfalls of being involved with a game that is designed to take my money and give it to other people. I know the takeout is way too high and that critical handicapping information is purposely withheld. I further understand that the combination of poor information and high takeouts leads to the financial demise of 99.9% of handicappers. If that weren't enough, there are the cheaters and all the new ways they find to cheat.

Still, I play.

Am I a fool or an optimist? Either way, maybe I'm not so different from Joe Hirsch.

Beat a Dead Horse

2009-01-12T02:04:00.000-08:00

First, read this.

Santa Anita might be bankrupting me, but it is killing horses.

I'll tell you what I think -- I think synthetic racing surfaces have a narrow temperature band where they are viable. Maybe 65F-75F. European temperatures?

Above the band, the horses slosh around the track, seeking traction on rubber-coated ball bearings. Below the band the junk clumps into a minefield of chunks and stumbles.

No wonder the results seem random...the surface is so bad it equalizes the odds. The only thing worse than asking bettors to gamble on this surface is asking horses to run over it.

As I see it, we have three choices:

1. Regulate the sun.
2. Only race in May and October.
3. Return to real dirt.

Carryovers prove my theory

2009-01-12T00:34:00.000-08:00

The track at Santa Anita sucks.

The Pick Six carries over most days, with 1.2 million on a 3 day spurt last Saturday. Oddly, the horses were formful that day resulting in a modest $9K or so payoff.

Still, the track just seems really, really weird to me.

Sure, management points to 1/3 of winners being favorites last year, but that was a different track. Even if it were the same track, having one third favorites win doesn't mean the track is fair or normal. You know what Mark Twain said about statistics.

If I had two eyes, a nose and a mouth you would think I was normal until I told you they were all on my ass. Now you know from whence I speak...

Still, I soldier on, trying to make sense of the senseless.

Today, Bob Baffert had three horses entered in the feature race and won it, of course, with the longest odds of the bunch paying $51. Explaining the failure of one of his well-backed entrants he casually remarked that the horse is "better on dirt." The horse that won was entered via showing some promise on grass.

Bob must think this synthetic ain't dirt, but it ain't grass neither...

Santa Anita Reopens

2008-12-25T20:21:00.001-08:00

The track from Hell is back for round two.

This time, the heat is gone.

I expect the artificial surface to play much fairer when its not melting. Of course, we have no idea how it will react to cold temperatures -- guess we'll find out.

Nine races for the day after Christmas. Check my picks at www.horsecalc.com

Dropped from the Top

2008-11-30T19:22:00.000-08:00

I knew it was too good to be true. Last month I was #1 on blogger under the search term "Horse Racing," now I'm nowhere to be found! That's what happens when you stop posting, I guess.

Sorry, but I've been busy with the move into the "new" house. I've been playing the horses every day, which you knew if you checked www.horsecalc.com.

Hollywood has been nearly as strange as Santa Anita. Top horses win more often, but some pretty odd dogs are getting into the money. Maybe I'm just getting old, but I really miss dirt.

Hollywood Opens Tomorrow

2008-10-28T20:00:00.000-07:00

Let's take a break from the Pro Ride at Santa Anita and mosey over to the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park! This synthetic crap is made in England instead of Australia. Cushion Track is composed of silica sand mixed with synthetic fibers, elastic fiber, and granulated rubber. The material is coated with a blend of wax.

Sounds a lot like the junk at Santa Anita, let's see how it plays with a plethora of favorites selected to win tomorrow!

As usual, the free picks are at www.horsecalc.com.

Paint It Green

2008-10-25T18:47:00.000-07:00

No, it's not an old Stones tune, it's the "dirt" at Santa Anita.

Curlin's trainer blamed the Pro Ride artificial surface for his horse's 4th place finish in the BC Classic. When you get beat by a three year old turf/synthetic specialist in the biggest race of your life, it's easy (and probably true) to blame the track.

Let's just paint this crap green and call it the outer turf course -- that's more accurate than trying to pass it off as dirt. No, it's not turf but it does play more like turf than dirt.

Congratulations to all the European (turf) winners (on "dirt.") I expect you'll all be back next year for more free money.

Speaking of free money. The 7th and 9th races were nearly textbook results for my picks. You should have made money today!

Forecast: 89 degrees for BC Saturday

2008-10-24T18:58:00.000-07:00

Sorry to miss a few posts, but I am in the process of moving from Cool to Stockton -- a distance of 100 miles. The move is slow, tiring and a real impediment to horseplay!

When the Breeders' Cup moved from broadcast television to cable last year, viewership dropped by 53%. At present, I have neither cable nor satellite or the time to attend off-track betting for Friday's card. Of course, the races were blacked-out on the internet so other than the first two races of Friday's undercard, I didn't see anything that happened at Santa Anita today.

Only 3 BC races were run on "dirt" Friday. No real surprises for the win but exotic players had to dig deep to find longshots for the lesser placings. The undercard stakes also held a few surprises.

Zenyatta and Stardom Bound were both coming off wins over Anita's Pro Ride surface. They had both proven they could handle this odd surface.

The big question for tomorrow is whether or not Curlin will like the going. His connections worried over the surface enough to request an afternoon work before committing to run in the Classic. Apparently, all went well enough to risk the horse's last race over a course made up of greasy little ball bearings.

If you followed my advice Friday, you probably made your day in the first race. First to 3rd exacta paid $169 for a buck. You could have cashed the trifecta for $857.10 by playing a $6 1 over 2,3 over 2,3,4,5 (numbers are ordered selections, not program numbers.) A ten cent superfecta of $356.77 could have been yours for $1.80, and you missed doubling that or more had #1 not missed 4th to the favorite by a neck at 39-1!

After the first, the weirdness of Pro Ride slowly took over the tote board except for the two aforementioned favorites with an affinity for the artificial.

As for tomorrow, visit www.horsecalc.com for my selections.

With the forecasted heat, there are bound to be some inexplicable results. However, the old adage of "Champions can win over any surface" still holds true, I believe. Not that I suggest betting the farm on Curlin, he actually looks to be a huge underlay to me. Not that I'd bet much against him, either...

Friday we had long doggies from 25-1 to 64-1 sprinkled into the exotics and I expect more of them tomorrow.

Will Short Fields Mean Low Prices?

2008-10-09T12:51:00.000-07:00

Today's Oak Tree has short fields and my handicapping places favorites at the top of most races. This combination usually does not bode well for making money, so I am limiting my plays today.

One thing I'm doing is taking minimum $1 pick threes in the first six races. With all the scheduled favorites, I might hit three winners in a row. I'm also playing pinpoint $4 trifectas 1/2,3/2,3,4. There are superfectas in only the 4th & 6th, but the 4th has no value and I'm skipping it. A simple 4 horse box in the 6th is as much risk as I'll take. The best value race for me is the 8th, but no superfecta due to the dentists' demand for a high payout exotic only they can afford to play (Super High Five.)

Trackside, it is 84 degrees. That's a bit warm for Pro Ride, I think. Maybe the long shots will take everyone's money by beating all the favorites we all think should win. The rest of the week will cool down by 10 degrees so I think we can play with some confidence Fri-Sun.

Blogger Stats

2008-10-06T02:38:00.000-07:00

Let's forget about Santa Anita's Pro Ride artificial surface for a minute and concentrate on how to become a blogging phenom.

A few minutes ago, I was #6 when searching for profile/interests/horse racing. Suddenly, I'm
#7! Argh! Keep in mind, this is #7 of over 900 horse racers, but still...

How did I drop so fast? Anyway, why aren't I number 2 or 3? Most of the people above me have little real interest in horse racing, or if they do, they only want you to sign up for their handicapping service.

I'm not sure which of the six above me existed before, just that one got added. What makes them add? I thought perhaps I was #6 just because my ONLY listed interest is horse racing. Some of the people have so many interests they are hardly interesting! What is their purpose in life, anyway?

To heck with this. My goal now is to become #1 on blogspot for profile/interests/horse racing. If I got to #6 or #7 without even realizing it, I must be doing something right! What am I doing?

Anyway, there are still horses running at Oak Tree, so check my picks at www.horsecalc.com.

Heat = Randomness at Santa Anita

2008-10-05T22:28:00.000-07:00

As the temperature dropped over the last couple of days, more of my top choices won. Long shots still tended to run in the money, but the top selections ran better than they did in the heat.

Sure, it could all be a coincidence. There is little data to go on, so my gut feeling about the Pro Ride surface is all I have.

Above 79 degrees, expect randomness to rear its ugly head. Above 89 degrees, keep your money in your pocket. I think Pro Ride is unsuitable for California heat. I think it turns to some kind of slippery mush that most horses don't like and can't handle, especially on turns.

The heat is about over as we head into Fall and Winter. I guess the next question is whether the artificial surface can handle the deluge of water that is coming.

The California Horse Racing Board mandated artificial surfaces to reduce horse injuries. I guess it is only fair to rate their success based on injury data collected over the next season or two.

However, if bettors don't feel confident risking their money over these new surfaces, then CHRB might well have mandated the horses stay in their stalls.

87 degrees still bad

2008-10-02T22:00:00.000-07:00

The first six races Thursday were absolutely unhandicappable. The temperature was about 87 for most of the afternoon, but cooled as the last two races ran.

Oddly, my top selections won the last two races...

Ok, maybe this post seems like sour grapes, I'll accept that. But the fact is that nothing has made much sense to me over the last "hot" week until the last two races on Thursday at about 84 Fahrenheit.

On top of that, it seemed to me as as the temperature at Arcadia dropped, the better my higher selections ran. I can't prove this, but it seems to me that heat is inversly proportional to favorites over the new Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita.

Hopefully, the summer heat is over and we can begin to handicap races without the artificial surface problems. If heat of say 85 degrees and above screws up the track, maybe the Breeder's Cup will go on without a hitch three (colder) weeks from now.

85F, that's my final answer. Anything above this temperature is like feeding Gremlins after midnight -- nothing good can come from it. Don't feed the Santa Anita Gremlins overs 85F!

As I predicted, there is a carryover for tomorrow of $62,119. My guess is that despite large fields, there are enough solid favorites to ensure someone is going home with all the money tomorrow.

If you want your share, I suggest you consider my selections at:

www.horsecalc.com

Longshots to cool off?

2008-10-01T22:06:00.000-07:00

The forecast is 12 degrees cooler for Thursday's card at Santa Anita.

At 87 degrees, maybe the artificial surface will seem less like greasy ball bearings and more like real dirt. Not that anyone has described how the Pro Ride feels to a horse, I'm just trying to imagine.

Ball bearings seems a bit hard. Maybe more like teeny little mushy balls of spongy plastic that slide out from under your hooves as you try to negotiate the far turn at 45 miles per hour.

Whatever it feels like, I suspect it feels worse the hotter the weather gets. Not to mention the heat itself and the way the dark surface absorbs it. If it was 99 in the stands, it must have been 125 or more on the track itself...

My prediction of a good chance for a carryover came true. No carryover, but one ticket took home the whole prize of $521K. No doubt the winner singled Simply Run on the turf in the 5th. Not only did she look good, but damn, it was a solid favorite on the turf, not the dirt!

Anyway, the dirt card was full of prices but I must admit most of them figured toward the top of my list and were not all that surprising. Not that I expected them to win, there were other horses with better shots if the footing were equal.

Let's just say the day wasn't formful, but wasn't so weird that I could point to the track and scream,"This surface is a piece of crap that should be shoveled onto a slow moving barge and used as monkey feed for any politician in favor of a Wall Street bailout during his or her excruciating journey through the plastic wasteland of the Pacific Gyre back to Australia where the whole mess can be composted into nutrients and airlifted to help save the endangered Tasmanian Devil."

I didn't say that, but it would solve three problems at once and probably make some entrepreneur a lot of money.

As for the immediate problem of trying to make any money at Oak Tree tomorrow, there will be more than full fields in 5 of 6 Pick Six races so think carryover again. I've got lukewarm favorites to win 3 of 6 with middling longshots for the other three.

In the third, I rather like CAPE HATCHET at 12-1 ML in a starter allowance for horses who have done no more than break their maiden. He's coming off a long layoff for Doug O'Neil, but both of his races are at Santa Anita (just not Pro Ride SA.) The favorite will likely be ACE HIGH HAND, but he's no shoo-in. Pro Ride will be a new experience for all, maybe the top pick will at least find the track view familiar.

Good luck and don't forget the free picks at http://www.horsecalc.com/.

Hot Pick Six today

2008-10-01T13:52:00.000-07:00

It's 99 degrees in Arcadia, CA -- a little hotter than the forecast 94.

There is a $138,000 carryover heading into the Pick Six in ten minutes.

So far, the favorites in the first two races are 1 for 2, with the first race won by my 3rd choice, Storm Brave at 5-1 with the 3/5 favorite a disappointing second. The longest shot in the field ran 3rd at 29-1. Hmm.

Although the second race was won by the 9/5 co-favorite, the next few horses along set up a $95.65 ten cent superfecta.

So, it looks like the track really isn't all that formful. Given the heat and full fields, there is a very good chance this thing will carry over to Thursday.

Tomorrow's forecast is 87 degrees -- much cooler...

Santa Anita Surface Still Funky

2008-09-28T21:34:00.000-07:00

Curlin won the Jockey Club Gold Cup to become the richest racehorse in history, based on inflated dollars. The fact is, the dollar has lost nearly half its value in just the last six years, so Curlin really isn't better than Cigar (12 years ago), just as Cigar probably wasn't better than Kelso who retired in 1965 with $1,977,896 in earnings.

Anyway, congratulations to the connections of Curlin as we lift an artificially-flavored concoction of soy and aspartame designed to taste something like champagne while delivering the same high at zero calories.

Meanwhile, the horse himself, however good he really is, heads to Santa Anita's Barn 21 to test the "Pro Ride" artificial surface so that his handlers can decide whether or not to get beat by a rank outsider who loves the "going."

In my last post, I mentioned I had nothing but favorites for Saturday and oddly most of them came in. On the whole, the artificial surface gave a good account of itself with the best horses running over it. Other than the 74-1 shot, ORO BLANCO, running third in the Oak Leaf, the results actually seemed relatively believable. Horses that figured, more or less, won all of the stakes races on "dirt" at Oak Tree Saturday.

Unfortunately, Sunday happened. Compared to Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday, Saturday was an abberation.

Sunday's payoffs:

$14.00
$16.40
$ 7.80
$43.60
$12.60
$13.80
$ 5.20 (only favorite)
$14.20
$33.20
$89.20

Trevor Denman's new signature call at Santa Anita is, "They straighten into the stretch and the race is wide open!"

I don't know what they did to the track Saturday, but whatever it was, they didn't repeat it Sunday...

The rumor is that the surface heats up in the afternoon. Jockeys and trainers are saying horses that handle the track in the mornings don't handle it in the afternoon. The surface is retaining heat and only about half the horses are able to negotiate the track during the races.

I thought the four stakes run Saturday would clear this up, but they were fairly formful. Sunday went right back to "unhandicapable" -- if that's a word. If it is, its definition is Pro Ride at Santa Anita.

So, Wednesday is a Pick Six carryover (again), but the weather is expected to cool off. Maybe there is a magical temperature where Pro Ride is fair. Here's the forcast for Arcadia:

Wednesday 94
Thursday 88
Friday 81

Perhaps a comparison of results to temperature is in order?

Maybe we should just pray for rain.

Curlin up with Oak Tree

2008-09-27T08:09:00.000-07:00

Will the Jockey Club Gold Cup be Curlin's last race?

His connections are leery of artifiicial racing surfaces, especially the one at Santa Anita where the Breeder's Cup Classic is to be raced next month.

If Curlin wins today, he will be the richest horse in history, cracking the $10 million mark in career winnings. He has already won a Breeder's Cup Classic, why risk his reputation on a surface not to his liking?

Speaking of Santa Anita's surface, my opinion is that there is something seriously wrong with it. In three days of racing, Oak Tree has been a graveyard of favorites. Some of them had bad racing luck, but most just seemed ordinary losers. The fields look spread out on paper, but bunch up in the stretch and anybody can win. Monstrous prices have posted.

Maybe the real test comes today with four main track stakes races carded. If the solid horses are overrun by longshots, we'll know there is a mystery to unravel.

There are only five horses in the Lady's Secret and if the winner is either SUPER FREAKY or SANTA TERESITA, the rumblings will begin for me.

The six furlong Ancient Title stakes is a bit competitve on paper, but the winner should come from the top 3 on the tote board.

Two year old fillies are usually pretty formful, and that's what I expect in the Oak Leaf. The only long shot on the morning line that could surprise me is WILL O WAY, who was a good 3rd to the favorite last time at 7f and could like the stretch out.

When they're running for half a million dollars, I don't expect surprises. That doesn't mean I expect a favorite to win, just that if a nice price pops up I expect one of my contenders to suprise other handicappers.

The $500K Goodwood could be where the money is today. The lukewarm morning line selection is WELL ARMED at just 7/2. I figure SPIRIT ONE, TIAGO and MAST TRACK all slightly better than the favorite. Whoever wins should pay a nice price, but if the winner comes from the bottom 2/3rds of the board, something is rotten.

Today's races look like a dry run for trainers eyeing the Breeder's Cup. They're all wondering what is up with the surface. If today is anything like the last 3 days, they will probably still be wondering what is going on here, tomorrow.

New Surface at Santa Anita

2008-09-26T17:04:00.000-07:00

With the Breeder's cup about a month away, the jury is still out on the new artificial surface at Santa Anita. Reports from horsemen and jockeys have been mostly positive, but the view from my side of the fence has been abysmal.

Maybe the horses are safer, but my money isn't! Evidence the pick six was not hit until today after two days of carryover. The horses that figure on paper have been having a rough time of it.

If you didn't get a piece of the big prize today, there is a guaranteed $1 million pool tomorrow.

My top selections for tomorrow are low odds, so I guess I'm doomed from the start!

Honestly, the way the track is playing so far, I'm hoping for rain -- something is definitely wrong with this track -- all long shots doesn't mean a track is playing fair.

Sorry for the delay

2005-12-10T07:50:00.000-08:00

I have been remiss updating this page.

No matter -- most folks are remiss here!

Visit my website on Saturdays for Southern California horse racing picks based on whatever methodology I might be using at the time. I am using EquiSpin for now...

Just an observation -- seems most bloggers/conversationalists supporting the neo-nazis are illiterate. Guess you have to be pretty stupid to think Dubya is good for the world.

I'm looking for a manufacturer for a "Morning Constitutional" brand of toilet paper. If we print the Constitution and Bill of Rights on a roll, we can wipe our ass with the Constitution just like politicians! Should be a big seller! Don't you love the free market?

Testing Spinners

2005-11-02T07:32:00.000-08:00

Well, my BC try was good enough to win the rec.sports.horse-racing Saturday Classic by nearly $27. There's some good handicappers there, so kudos to me I guess...

I've decided to test the current program tracking 1-4 picks and their morning line odds, my odds, finish and final tote odds. Also, place payoff on top horse. I'll wait for 1000 races (a month or more of effort) before making substantial changes to anything but the track database -- and only minor tweaks to that.

Collecting a little data on the top 4 should give me some idea if things are "working" and maybe help play exotics. BC results say ignore exotics and focus on WIN ONLY...

As for real betting, for now WIN ONLY and then only at "not dinky" tracks. Charlestown and the likes of Mountaineer seem to eat my bankroll while SA, GG and BEL add to my cash.

Goal well met!

2005-10-29T19:37:00.000-07:00

The 2005 Breeder's Cup is now history! Congrats to all the winners and my condolences to the losers.

The grind to get a new program working paid off with two healthy winners -- STEVIE WONDERBOY ($11.00) and INTERCONTINENTAL ($32.20). After the races, I tweaked the track data a wee bit to move SAINT LIAM and SHIROCCO to the top of list. I may have whacked German tracks to get SHIROCCO, but the other change seems legit.

Unfortunately, I tried to press my luck on the small potato tracks. That experiment did not go well, but hopefully I tuned their data a bit. I think I need to stay on the major circuits as bandaged animals just don't spin around the track properly.

Even after the tweaking, I couldn't score a gimmick. Beginning to think I should stick with win bets and gimmicks involving winners only (pick 3, etc.) Might have got the 1st BC triple had I played it -- Folklore was no stretch and the other 2 were on top ($341 for the taking.)

Japanese Spam

2005-10-29T00:56:00.000-07:00

Is it just me, or are ya'll getting lots of spam from Japanese spammers?

I get a lot of spam, or a lot for an insignificant web presence such as myself...

Lately, about half of my spam has been Japanese in Kanji (I assume) that is unreadable:

"$B$O$8$a$^$7$F!"_7ED$H?=$7$^$9!#$$$-$J$j$N%a!<%k$G?=$7Lu$4$6$$$^$;$s!#(B$B:#;d$O!"
At first I thought the messages were machine-code trojans or whatnot, but the English within reveals a web site, so let's take a look! (Man, am I stupid or what?)

Should have known -- looks like porn!

Finished just in time

2005-10-28T22:25:00.000-07:00

I've been working like a maniac to get my new handicapping software done in time for the Breeder's Cup. It's as ready as it is likely to get.

The European horses were challenging to figure speed ratings. Hopefully, I have not overestimated their chances to win.

A revamped "Spinner" method and an all-new speedrating breakthrough have led me to select STARCRAFT to win the Classic. See all my other picks at www.stevenberry.com

First post at Belmont is 09:00 Pacific, so let's all get some sleep!

Grinding toward the BC.

2005-10-21T04:42:00.000-07:00

Spent a little more than 3 hours developing the program tonight.

The "buggy" version of MyRats is working. I am generating a number but it isn't correct. Still, it's nice to have a number...Need to do better estimating off track conditions and watch out for winners as the data makes them look like losers. I expect this to work within a few days. The hard work is done.

I had intended to call this progarm EquiSim, but some other bastard is using the name so I'll have to come up with something else. That guy has written a pretty good program, similar to what I want, but the weakest part for him is the SIM. That's kind of silly because he thinks that is the strongest part. My SIM will hopefully be my strongest point. No pretty 3D, but able to simulate odds on 10-100 runs. His text data is way beyond what I envision for my program. The dude has a lot of good features but his program is not worth $100+ IMHO. Mine will be free (again, as usual. I think the BIG MONEY for me involves garnering a "rep" and charging the powers that be for my opinion.)

I am leaning more towards estimating a horse's fitness for the race than just using spinner theory to estimate odds. It seems I trashed the SPINNER theory from my website. I'll have to retype this someday. Sorry. Damned computers...

2005-10-20T03:55:00.000-07:00

Me with Canuk money!

9 days of development until BC

2005-10-20T03:28:00.000-07:00

Up way too late last night convincing blogger I was not a SPAMBOT. I think filling in most of my user information finally let me make a second post.

Despite the lack of sleep, I think I had good progress tonight adding to the new program. GetTrack(track) seems to be more or less working. This function will let me look up track adjustments to offset raw speed ratings. Just have to make the data returned make sense...

I am focusing on making GetMyRat(...) working. Several fields to fill in much like my old Nag-O-Calc III program. Once I can create my own speed ratings, just a matter of time before I decide how to use them. I know the program won't work completely like I want in time for the Breeder's Cup, but I think I'll have something useful that might make money.

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The most interesting race on BC Day is the Sprint for me. Russell Baze is scheduled to ride LOST IN THE FOG who is 10 for 10. The knock, of course, is that LITF has beaten no one of consequence.

Baze is in the Hall of Fame despite being a big fish in a small pond. A win here would cement his reputation as one of the best jockeys ever...despite the fact he pretty much just has to stay in the saddle while the horse clears the field.

Still, LITF is just a 3-year-old who will be up against older horses. The fractions and times he's posted say he'll do it but who knows? At least we know Baze won't stiff this one like he does other 3/5 shots...

Countdown to the Breeder's Cup

2005-10-19T07:13:00.000-07:00

Seven races for $1 million plus -- the Classic at 1 1/4 miles for $4 million...

The best horses in the world competing for the biggest purses and you don't care?

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I have eleven days to re-invent the wheel. I'm working desperately to program a new speed rating method that will put Andy Beyer to shame. Not that his ratings are bad, but they aren't accurate across distances, much less across tracks. God forbid you use his ratings between turf and dirt...

Does the world really need another speed rating method? The world needs a method that actually works and despite claims to the contrary, Beyer's method sucks.

Why base your ratings on low-level claimers? My ratings are based on the fastest horses in North America running their fastest times. Can a horse give more than 100%? Nope.

All will be explained soon. The biggest question for now is how will I use my new ratings to place bets on the 'Cup. Speed ratings don't pick winners, people do. Good ratings make the job easier.

This new method is worthy of a book, but I doubt Daily Racing Form (DRF Press) will publish it as it will supersede their cash cow (Beyer.) I expect them to pooh-pooh me rather than give the method its proper due.

Anyway, it looks like a book is in the works. It couldn't be much worse than the crap I've bought so far... I may have to self-publish.

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Tonight's progress: Successfully iterated through past performances downloaded from youbet.com's 50 cent Equibase past performances (these files are intended for viewing not parsing, but I parse them anyway.) Race data stored in an Access database. Someday I'll add an interface for the lemmings buying DRF/TSN/TM data files. Or not.

To do: Calculate MyRat via algorithms worked out in Excel and prototyped in other VB5 work.
Consider whether to use "spinner" theory or go one step beyond to judge suitability to today's distance. See my website for some insight to spinner theory: www.stevenberry.com