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Location: Stockton, California, United States

Some call me OlRailbird.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Heat = Randomness at Santa Anita

As the temperature dropped over the last couple of days, more of my top choices won. Long shots still tended to run in the money, but the top selections ran better than they did in the heat.

Sure, it could all be a coincidence. There is little data to go on, so my gut feeling about the Pro Ride surface is all I have.

Above 79 degrees, expect randomness to rear its ugly head. Above 89 degrees, keep your money in your pocket. I think Pro Ride is unsuitable for California heat. I think it turns to some kind of slippery mush that most horses don't like and can't handle, especially on turns.

The heat is about over as we head into Fall and Winter. I guess the next question is whether the artificial surface can handle the deluge of water that is coming.

The California Horse Racing Board mandated artificial surfaces to reduce horse injuries. I guess it is only fair to rate their success based on injury data collected over the next season or two.

However, if bettors don't feel confident risking their money over these new surfaces, then CHRB might well have mandated the horses stay in their stalls.


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