Push a button...Pick a winner.

My Photo
Location: Stockton, California, United States

Some call me OlRailbird.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Derby Odds

Mike Battaglia has published his morning line on the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Battaglia is widely acknowledged as the best in the business.

Post Position
1West Side BernieStewart ElliottKelly Breen30-1
2Musket ManEibar CoaDerek Ryan20-1
3Mr. Hot StuffJohn VelazquezEoin Harty30-1
4AdviceRene DouglasTodd Pletcher30-1
5Hold Me BackKent DesormeauxBill Mott15-1
6Friesan FireGabriel SaezJ. Larry Jones5-1
7Papa ClemRafael BejaranoGary Stute20-1
8Mine That BirdCalvin BorelBennie Woolley Jr.50-1
9Join in the DanceChris DeCarloTodd Pletcher50-1
10Regal RansomAlan GarciaSaeed bin Suroor30-1
11Chocolate CandyMike SmithJerry Hollendorfer20-1
12General QuartersJulien LeparouxTom McCarthy20-1
13I Want RevengeJoe TalamoJeff Mullins3-1
14Atomic RainJoe BravoKelly Breen50-1
15DunkirkEdgar PradoTodd Pletcher4-1
16Pioneerof the NileGarrett GomezBob Baffert4-1
17Summer BirdChris RosierTim Ice50-1
18Nowhere to HideShaun BridgmohanNick Zito50-1
19Desert PartyRamon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor15-1
20Flying PrivateRobby AlbaradoD. Wayne Lukas50-1

I'll be posting my handicap on HorseCalc and here Friday night.

Glancing at the past performances, you have to respect Pioneer of the Nile. Since Baffert took over as trainer he is 4 for 4. I Want Revenge is 0 for 2 against him. IWR and Papa Clem were both run out of Southern California by Pioneer...Can they beat him now?

Good Luck.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Shoot the 7 and I Got It!

Is there anything you hate worse than watching your trifecta run 2,3,4 behind some longshot winner that you didn't figure? That's when even the most optimistic of us start suspecting foul play.

I just watched two races in a row where the seven horse wiped out scrumptious superfectas by romping to an easy win. The saddle cloth number doesn't matter, just the fact that there was no way in my world view that horse would hit the board, much less annihilate the field.

For Southern California, I started a text file I call cheaters.txt just for this type of horse. I'm not going to post it because it's an incomplete work in progress. Maybe they're not "cheaters," either but something was weird according to my race perceptions.

So far, two theories stand out:

1) If the trainer and the owner are "connected" (same guy, same family, his farm) and the odds are good, look out.

2) If the jockey is J Rosario and the odds are good, look out.

This isn't going to work at small tracks where the trainers and owners are nearly all inter-related. Hell, it may not make money at a big track where trainers have many clients -- it just seems like it could.

The Pamplemousse is out of the Kentucky Derby and will likely miss six months of racing.