Goal well met!

The 2005 Breeder's Cup is now history! Congrats to all the winners and my condolences to the losers.

The grind to get a new program working paid off with two healthy winners -- STEVIE WONDERBOY ($11.00) and INTERCONTINENTAL ($32.20). After the races, I tweaked the track data a wee bit to move SAINT LIAM and SHIROCCO to the top of list. I may have whacked German tracks to get SHIROCCO, but the other change seems legit.

Unfortunately, I tried to press my luck on the small potato tracks. That experiment did not go well, but hopefully I tuned their data a bit. I think I need to stay on the major circuits as bandaged animals just don't spin around the track properly.

Even after the tweaking, I couldn't score a gimmick. Beginning to think I should stick with win bets and gimmicks involving winners only (pick 3, etc.) Might have got the 1st BC triple had I played it -- Folklore was no stretch and the other 2 were on top ($341 for the taking.)

Japanese Spam

Is it just me, or are ya'll getting lots of spam from Japanese spammers?

I get a lot of spam, or a lot for an insignificant web presence such as myself...

Lately, about half of my spam has been Japanese in Kanji (I assume) that is unreadable:

"$B$O$8$a$^$7$F!"_7ED$H?=$7$^$9!#$$$-$J$j$N%a!<%k$G?=$7Lu$4$6$$$^$;$s!#(B$B:#;d$O!"
At first I thought the messages were machine-code trojans or whatnot, but the English within reveals a web site, so let's take a look! (Man, am I stupid or what?)

Should have known -- looks like porn!

Finished just in time

I've been working like a maniac to get my new handicapping software done in time for the Breeder's Cup. It's as ready as it is likely to get.

The European horses were challenging to figure speed ratings. Hopefully, I have not overestimated their chances to win.

A revamped "Spinner" method and an all-new speedrating breakthrough have led me to select STARCRAFT to win the Classic. See all my other picks at www.stevenberry.com

First post at Belmont is 09:00 Pacific, so let's all get some sleep!

Grinding toward the BC.

Spent a little more than 3 hours developing the program tonight.

The "buggy" version of MyRats is working. I am generating a number but it isn't correct. Still, it's nice to have a number...Need to do better estimating off track conditions and watch out for winners as the data makes them look like losers. I expect this to work within a few days. The hard work is done.

I had intended to call this progarm EquiSim, but some other bastard is using the name so I'll have to come up with something else. That guy has written a pretty good program, similar to what I want, but the weakest part for him is the SIM. That's kind of silly because he thinks that is the strongest part. My SIM will hopefully be my strongest point. No pretty 3D, but able to simulate odds on 10-100 runs. His text data is way beyond what I envision for my program. The dude has a lot of good features but his program is not worth $100+ IMHO. Mine will be free (again, as usual. I think the BIG MONEY for me involves garnering a "rep" and charging the powers that be for my opinion.)

I am leaning more towards estimating a horse's fitness for the race than just using spinner theory to estimate odds. It seems I trashed the SPINNER theory from my website. I'll have to retype this someday. Sorry. Damned computers...

Me with Canuk money! 

9 days of development until BC

Up way too late last night convincing blogger I was not a SPAMBOT. I think filling in most of my user information finally let me make a second post.

Despite the lack of sleep, I think I had good progress tonight adding to the new program. GetTrack(track) seems to be more or less working. This function will let me look up track adjustments to offset raw speed ratings. Just have to make the data returned make sense...

I am focusing on making GetMyRat(...) working. Several fields to fill in much like my old Nag-O-Calc III program. Once I can create my own speed ratings, just a matter of time before I decide how to use them. I know the program won't work completely like I want in time for the Breeder's Cup, but I think I'll have something useful that might make money.

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The most interesting race on BC Day is the Sprint for me. Russell Baze is scheduled to ride LOST IN THE FOG who is 10 for 10. The knock, of course, is that LITF has beaten no one of consequence.

Baze is in the Hall of Fame despite being a big fish in a small pond. A win here would cement his reputation as one of the best jockeys ever...despite the fact he pretty much just has to stay in the saddle while the horse clears the field.

Still, LITF is just a 3-year-old who will be up against older horses. The fractions and times he's posted say he'll do it but who knows? At least we know Baze won't stiff this one like he does other 3/5 shots...

Countdown to the Breeder's Cup

Seven races for $1 million plus -- the Classic at 1 1/4 miles for $4 million...

The best horses in the world competing for the biggest purses and you don't care?

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I have eleven days to re-invent the wheel. I'm working desperately to program a new speed rating method that will put Andy Beyer to shame. Not that his ratings are bad, but they aren't accurate across distances, much less across tracks. God forbid you use his ratings between turf and dirt...

Does the world really need another speed rating method? The world needs a method that actually works and despite claims to the contrary, Beyer's method sucks.

Why base your ratings on low-level claimers? My ratings are based on the fastest horses in North America running their fastest times. Can a horse give more than 100%? Nope.

All will be explained soon. The biggest question for now is how will I use my new ratings to place bets on the 'Cup. Speed ratings don't pick winners, people do. Good ratings make the job easier.

This new method is worthy of a book, but I doubt Daily Racing Form (DRF Press) will publish it as it will supersede their cash cow (Beyer.) I expect them to pooh-pooh me rather than give the method its proper due.

Anyway, it looks like a book is in the works. It couldn't be much worse than the crap I've bought so far... I may have to self-publish.

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Tonight's progress: Successfully iterated through past performances downloaded from youbet.com's 50 cent Equibase past performances (these files are intended for viewing not parsing, but I parse them anyway.) Race data stored in an Access database. Someday I'll add an interface for the lemmings buying DRF/TSN/TM data files. Or not.

To do: Calculate MyRat via algorithms worked out in Excel and prototyped in other VB5 work.
Consider whether to use "spinner" theory or go one step beyond to judge suitability to today's distance. See my website for some insight to spinner theory: www.stevenberry.com